What's so important about these eight states?

I came across this article from the Philadelphia Inquirer that does a great job of illuminating the dire situation Democrats find themselves in ahead of the 2006 midterm elections - especially regarding the U.S. Senate. But though this is a blunt reminder, it's also got a subtle hopefulness as well.

Kind of like if a doctor were to say, "I'm sorry, but you have a parasite. But at least you don't have cancer!"

Well, OK, maybe that's a bad analogy. But here's where the 2006 U.S. Senate is going to be determined: Pennsylvania (props for my home state!), Rhode Island, Tennessee, Ohio (bloody Ohio, again), Montana, Florida (bloody Florida, again), Minnesota and Washington.

So five of these eight seats (PA, RI, TN, OH, and MT) are seats currently held by Republicans that the Dems can win. Three of them (FL, MN and WA) are seats that the Dems need to hold onto (FL and WA have vulnerable incumbents, MN is an open seat, since Democratic Sen. Mark Dayton decided to retire).

You still with me? I wish I had a chalkboard...I could make this all look like a football game play.

So do you want the good news, or the bad news first? Well, the good news is that in all these states, the Dems are likely going to field eight very strong candidates, which is a rarity. Already strong candidates are running in PA (Bob Casey), TN (Rep. Harold Ford Jr.), RI (two strong Democrats with statewide office experience), FL (incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson), and WA (incumbent Sen. Maria Cantwell). If the national Democratic party can recruit who they want in Ohio (Rep. Sherrod Brown), we'll be able to add Ohio to that last. And the other states (MN and MT) have several announced candidates, leading up to next year's primaries. Good stuff!

But here's the kicker, and hence the bad news...even if the Dems win all eight of these seats, they'll still be one seat shy of a majority.

Shit.

So that means over the next 15 months, we need one more state to become vulnerable. Perhaps a Republican will retire? Perhaps a Republican will do something stupid (you'd think it's safe money betting on this, eh!)? We'll see...this article from Philly suggests that perhaps Arizona will be in play, but I doubt that. Sen. Jon Kyl is an entrenched Republican incumbent, and even though a really rich Democrat (Jim Pederson) has announced he'll challenge Kyl, I think Kyl is too strong.

At this point, I'd like to think Maine's Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe could become vulnerable, or perhaps Nevada's Republican Sen. John Ensign. But those are long-shots, and it's too early to tell anything. Politics changes by the hour, and we've still got 15 months to go. And there's the possibility that other Democrats could become vulnerable too (Nebraska's Ben Nelson, Michigan's Debbie Stabenow, West Virginia's Robert Byrd, and possibly even New York's Hillary Clinton, though I'd never bet against a Clinton).

Geesh! All this politics gobbledygook! Pretty soon you'll all want me talking about religion again...!

Have a great weekend.