Jones of the Nile

Monday, October 31, 2005

Rick Santorum and Bill Clinton have something in common?

Don't worry, the sky isn't falling. What Bill Clinton and Slick Rick Santorum have in common, according to Pennsylvania political science gurus G. Terry Madonna and Michael Young, is that they are historically known as "Comeback Kids." This article from Politics PA spells it out.

But before us anti-Rick folks get all torked up, this article is quite good. It shows how, despite the fact that Slick Rick likes to portray himself as an underdog in every election, he's actually lying. In his last two elections, Rick Santorum faced candidates the equivalent of Forest Gump. (Which is ironic, now that I say that, because Teresa Heinz Kerry once called Rick Santorum 'Forest Gump.' But I digress...) He was never an underdog, yet despite his weak opponents, Santorum closed badly and only won by a few points.

This time, as the gurus write, Santorum doesn't have the luxury of campaigning against a no-name yokel. He's campaigning against a Casey, and the only name more famous than "Casey" in Pennsylvania is "Penn."

So I take a lot of stock in this article. And it's from G. Terry Madonna, who is the Don Corleone of Pennsylvania political science. Here's the best line:

"Santorum is not a closer. He regularly fumbles big leads or stumbles in the clutch. To some extent he also does not wear well with voters as the campaign runs on. Much of his electoral success has been based on running up big leads and then hanging on to win what becomes a close race."

Why is that line so important? Because Santorum, who has all the advantages of incumbency (name recognition, money, etc.), is already 16 points behind Bob Casey in polls. If the Senator can't close, and he's not racking up his big lead, then what other road can he follow other than the road to defeat?

It's going to be an interesting year for this campaign. Oh, and if you needed another reason to hate Wal-Mart, or one reason to stop shopping at Urban Outfitters, check out this site, http://www.outsantorum.org/, which shows that Slick Rick has received campaign money from these two retailers and their founders.

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